Ernie Quigley’s 2019 Forecast
Conquering the Cycles of Soybeans and Corn
Complete Market Coverage of Soybeans & Corn
Are you ready to put 2018 behind you?
A constant theme of my commentaries is that the amplitude of cycles is dependent upon fundamental factors. The anticipated near record yield of soybeans coupled with the 89.6 million planted acres projects a record 785 million bushel carryover. No wonder soybeans have been in a bear market.
The anticipated record yield in corn coupled with lower planted acres results in an ending stocks projection of 1,684 million bushels of corn. This is less than the prior two years. Corn prices have not been as disastrous as soybeans.
Nevertheless, it has been a tough year for both soybeans and corn. Cash soybeans have declined persistently since March 5th. November beans have declined persistently since May 29th. Cash corn has declined persistently since May 3rd while December corn has declined persistently since May 24th.
There are four cycles in soybeans discussed in my August Soybean Newsletter that suggest the current bear market in soybeans may complete by the end of the year. There are also four cycles in corn (not all the same cycles) discussed in my September Corn Newsletter that also suggest the current bear market in corn may complete by the end of the year.
Besides my proprietary multi-week to multi month-cycles, the length of time from the highs of July 9, 2012 and May 29, 2018 in soybeans can be compared to prior bear markets to project possible times for the current bear market to complete. The same analysis can be used for corn.
Besides cycle analysis, it is important to monitor other tools. What the Commercial-Hedgers are doing at the present time is useful. As I write this, the Commercial Hedgers have NET LONG positions in both corn and soybeans. A reversion to their usual business practice of being NET SHORT will be a Set-Up to stalk Entry Triggers into long positions. My 2019 Forecast reviews and projects the behavior of the Commercial-Hedgers.
Will the Weather Be a Wild Card in 2019?
Some meteorologists are projecting a significant change in the weather for 2019. There are those (Joe Bastardi – The Farmers Almanac) who are projecting a “teeth chattering” cold winter. Will a developing El Nino bring drought conditions to portions of the Corn Belt?
What About Price Projections?
Reap the benefits of a significant number of man hours researching and analyzing past “comparable years”. These comparable years can be used to make both timing projections of highs and lows, but also price projections. Learn when the price projections of prior comparable years align with our Ratio Price Projections. It’s a winning combination!
The 2019 Forecast is covered in detail in a 200 page +/- manual. This manual will be mailed by Saturday, January 5, 2019. This will be followed by an online video presentation transmitted by Friday, January 18, 2019.